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Barclays Expects HK Econ Growth to Slow to 2.5% This Yr, Raises CN GDP Growth Forecast to 5%
Hong Kong's GDP growth accelerated YoY in 1Q24, driven by the continued recovery in exports, according to Barclays' quarterly report on emerging markets in Asia. However, t...
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Barclays Expects HK Econ Growth to Slow to 2.5% This Yr, Raises CN GDP Growth Forecast to 5%
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Hong Kong's GDP growth accelerated YoY in 1Q24, driven by the continued recovery in exports, according to Barclays' quarterly report on emerging markets in Asia. However, the economy is weakening as the contraction in private consumption worsens.

Taking into account the changing consumption patterns of tourists and Hong Kong residents, as well as the downturn in the real estate market, Barclays still expected Hong Kong's GDP growth to slow from 3.2% YoY in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024.

For China, Barclays expected the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may further ease monetary policy in 2H24, including a 10 bps cut in the medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate and a 25-50 bps cut in RRR.

Barclays also raised its revision to China's GDP growth forecast to 5.0%, from the prior estimation of 4.4%, mainly reflecting the better-than-expected 1Q24 GDP data released by Chinese officials.
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