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<Research>BOCOMI's 2H24 Car Industry Outlook: BYD to Erode Mkt Share of JVs, as Tesla's FSD Hastens Deployment of Intelligent Driving
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BOCOMI released its outlook for the mainland automotive industry in 2H24. The broker maintained its full-year passenger car retail sales forecast at 22.13 million units, representing a YoY growth of about 2%. Export performance is expected to stay strong, with whole-vehicle exports predicted to grow at 20-25% YoY. Entry of Tesla (TSLA.US)'s FSD to China will lead the accelerated deployment of intelligent driving, and the development route of focusing more on sensors and less on predefined maps may become mainstream. BOCOMI believed that the launch of DM5.0 models by BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) would further erode the market share of Japanese joint-venture brands. GWMOTOR (02333.HK) will see its new energy transformation accelerate, exports grow at a high rate, and profitability improve. Among the NEV startups, LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) and NIO-SW (09866.HK) may have stage-by-stage investment opportunities. The broker expected full-year heavy truck sales to grow at around 10% YoY, with total sales of around 1 million units, mainly driven by natural gas heavy-duty trucks. The broker expected industry leader SINOTRUK (03808.HK) to continue to increase its market share based on its excellent products and mature domestic and overseas sales channels. In addition, the broker forecasted that the replacement cycle of heavy trucks, the exploding demand for natural gas heavy trucks and the recovery of overseas business KION would support the revenue growth and profit improvement of WEICHAI POWER (02338.HK). AAStocks Financial News |
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