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<Research>G Sachs Raises Yr-End Gold Price Forecast to USD3,300
Recommend 12 Positive 30 Negative 11 |
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Goldman Sachs’ report raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to USD3,300 per ounce (up from USD3,100 previously), adjusting the forecast range to USD3,250-3,520. This reflects unexpected ETF inflows and sustained strong demand from central banks. Despite notable uncertainty, the broker estimated that major Asian central bank buyers may continue rapidly purchasing gold over the next 3-6 years to reach its projected potential gold reserve target range. The base case of the broker assumed speculative positions normalize from current highs, while the upper end of the price range reflects sustained tightness in holdings amid heightened uncertainty. Medium-term price risks remain tilted to the upside, with the broker illustrating that in extreme risk scenarios, gold price could top USD4,200 per ounce at end-2025. The broker reiterated its long gold trading recommendation, while acknowledging two potential (though uncertain) events that could offer more attractive entry points. First, a Russia-Ukraine peace deal might trigger speculative selling, though Goldman Sachs viewed such an agreement is unlikely to obviously alter the tight supply-demand dynamics, as Russian gold exports are actually higher than pre-sanction levels, and the freezing of Russian central bank assets has set a key precedent likely to sustain high central bank demand. Second, while not the base case for the broker’s portfolio strategist, a potential steep stock market sell-off could lead to gold liquidation due to margin calls. This scenario would likely be short-lived, since holdings would swiftly recover amid high uncertainty. AAStocks Financial News |
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