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<Research>JPM Raises MSCI CN/ HK Index Targets; Top 2Q CN Stock Picks Include Tencent & Alibaba
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JP Morgan released its 2Q25 outlook report for the Chinese stock market, indicating that upside and downside risks are expected to intertwine in 2Q25. The broker estimated that, Chinese bourse, after early April, may reflect 4Q24 EPS growth, upward revisions in market expectations, and 1Q25 results beat.

Presently, DeepSeek are widely adopted by mainland companies to cut costs. While it’s too early for companies to provide specific guidance, more detailed information is expected for the remainder of the year. The broker raised its EPS forecasts for the MSCI China Index by 5% for 2025 and 2026, given upward revisions in net profit margin projections.

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JP Morgan increased its base-case target for the MSCI China Index from 67 to 80 points and its bull-case target from 76 to 89 points. Compared to the CSI 300 Index, the broker preferred the offshore-traded MSCI China Index due to its more favorable sector portfolio. It also raised its base-case target for the MSCI Hong Kong Index from 10,700 to 11,600 points and its bull-case target from 11,800 to 12,400 points.

For the MSCI China Index, JP Morgan lifted the ratings of Discretionary/ Healthcare stocks from Neutral to Overweight, while downgrading Industrials from Overweight to Neutral. For the MSCI Hong Kong Index, the broker upgraded Discretionary and Financials to Overweight, while downgrading Industrials and Utilities to Neutral or Underweight.

The broker listed its top picks for Chinese stocks for 2Q25, including AKESO (09926.HK), ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK), CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK), Futu Holdings (FUTU.US), HTSC (06886.HK), INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK), JD.com (JD.US), TENCENT (00700.HK), Alibaba (BABA.US), and TAL Education (TAL.US).

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