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<Research> BOCI: Tencent Stake Sale Concerns Weigh on BILIBILI-W (09626.HK); Profit Expected to Sustain Growth
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BOCI issued a report noting that BILIBILI-W (09626.HK) recently saw its share price decline, with the markets concerns mainly stemming from potential stake sale risks by Tencent Holdings, which has repeatedly indicated it will accelerate the disposal of its sizable investment portfolio to support increased AI investment and ongoing share buybacks. As of end-March, Tencent Holdings held a 10.5% stake in BILIBILI-W (09626.HK), maintaining a stable holding of approximately 43.75 million shares since 2019.

The broker said that although it cannot predict the pace of Tencent Holdings stake reduction, it believes the company will rely on healthy user growth driven by its AI-empowered content and commercialization ecosystem, generating stable and sustainable profit growth through enhanced and diversified high-quality monetization capabilities. It forecasts a CAGR of 31% in adjusted net profit for 20252028. The broker also considers the companys fundamentals solid, with a healthy cash flow position, stable internal cash inflows and no significant or unexpected AI-related capital expenditure.

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BOCI expects the advertising business to maintain strong momentum in the coming quarters, while the gaming segment is set to accelerate growth from 2H as several new titles are officially launched, driving better-than-expected profitability in 2026 and 2027. The broker maintained a Buy rating on BILIBILI-W (09626.HK), with a US target price of USD31 for Bilibili Inc. (BILI.US) and an H-share target price of HKD244. (ha/da)
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